*Export Sales data will be released at 7:30. Here are the trade estimates: Wheat= 200-500 tmt, Corn= 475-950 tmt, Soybeans= 200-350 tmt, Soymeal= 75-150 tmt, Soyoil= 10-20 tmt.
Weather will provide normal-above temperatures for most of the Midwest during the next 10 days, with below normal temps returning in the 11-15 day window. Some precip will be found in each 5-day segment of the 2 week outlook.
Wheat will lean lower on overnight tone and general bearish trader sentiment that at minimum causes bulls to look somewhere else to satisfy their need to buy something. Fundamental news has been and will remain bearish. There was no new revelation in yesterday's data. Technical conditions are oversold. Long liquidation pressures should have already peaked. The spec community is carrying an excessive short position. We can easily rally 20 cents or more from current levels. Expect price recovery activity during the next two weeks.
Corn will start near unchanged on a lack of sustainable/follow-through energy to yesterday's report data. Producer selling will quickly grind to a halt. Fundamentally, when you have a 1.7 bil carryout, does it really matter if you add 80 more mil to the pile? Oversold technical conditions exist. Any long utilizing a stop-loss approach has already been liquidated. Do we have segments of the trade willing to sell on weakness down here? I don't think so. Expect some price recovery during the next couple of weeks. Expect trader focus on weather patterns to increase. Producers should find better selling opportunities develop during the next couple of weeks.
Soybeans will be well supported on any weakness, as yesterday's price action was favorable and the overnight tone doesn't give bears much of a boost. Many traders have been anxiously willing to embrace longer-term bearish fundamental factors and have established short positions during the past several days. However, it may well be that we have too many short-term equity traders holding short positions for all the right long-term reasons. Yesterday's price action threatens to trap shorts and firming trade during today's session could easily trigger short-covering energy. The overall fundamental theme didn't change with yesterday's data. The long-term outlook has been and will remain bearish. Watch outside markets during the next couple of weeks and don't be surprised if any upside encouragement there helps to unleash short-covering activity in the soy-complex. Producers need to view such price strength as selling opportunities.
In summary, any weakness this morning isn't likely to find much "sell weakness" trader enthusiasm. Yesterday's data from USDA may have been bearish, but didn't alter the already fully known theme. Technical conditions are oversold. Producer selling interest is limited at current values. We have conditions that would seem quite capable of trapping shorts and triggering short-covering energy. Expect firming price trends to develop during the next couple of weeks. Maybe yesterday's reports should be viewed as a warning to producers to lower sales target ideas and to increase desires to make sales on rallies, but I don't think the data implies the next leg down has begun and selling will intensify on weakness. *US Trade Gap data will be released at 7:30. *Weekly Jobless Claims data will be released at 7:30. At 7:05 this morning: Crude was down $0.07, Gold was down $1.90, Dow Index was down 14 and the US $ was down 8.
CORN: Barge Values: Mar= +34 K CK: Support= 3.63-65,Resistance= 3.75
**PROFILE: May Corn> We have seen 7 lower closes of the past 8 sessions. We are basically back to the February lows. From this area, under the same basic fundamental theme, we rallied 30 cents when few expected it. Can we stage another rally from the same area again under similar market sentiment circumstances? I will expect better sales opportunities to develop during the next two weeks.
SOYBEANS: Palm Oil futures were lower, down 25. China soybean futures were higher, up 14. Barge Values: Mar= +47 K SK: Support= 9.45-50, Resistance= 9.70-9.75 SMK: Support= 257, Resistance=280 BOK: Support= 39.00, Resistance= 41.50
**PROFILE: ***May Soybeans> Favorable/encouraging price action. We are poised to build additional upside momentum on increasing short-covering activities. Further upside probes in November soybeans towards/above $9.50 should be seen as longer-term selling opportunities. IN SUMMARY, expect better sales opportunities to develop during the next two weeks.
WHEAT: Barge SRW Values: Mar= +35 K Track HRW Values: Mar= +60 K WK: Support= 4.80, Resistance= 5.10
**PROFILE: Chicago May Wheat> Oversold conditions exist. A recovery rally event is likely during the next two weeks, possibly greater than current rhetoric would suggest.
GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS: China's consumer price index data released today rose 2.7% in February, which was higher than traders expected. This has elevated expectations that China may seek to raise interest rates or other credit-tightening measures to fend off inflation.
Other Cash Values: Chicago: Corn= -7 K, Soybeans= -15 K Toledo: Corn= -30 K, Soybeans= -10 K Cedar Rapids, IA: Corn= -18 K, Soybeans= -22 K.
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